68. Crandell and Mullineaux (1967) Volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington
    Mount Rainier is a large stratovolcano of andesitic rock in the Cascade Range of western Washington. Although the volcano as it now stands was almost completely formed before the last major glaciation, geologic formations record a variety of events that have occurred at the volcano in postglacial time. Repetition of some of these events today without warning would result in property damage and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. It is appropriate, therefore, to examine the extent, frequency, and apparent origin of these phenomena and to attempt to predict the effects on man of similar events in the future. The present report was prompted by a contrast that we noted during a study of surficial geologic deposits in Mount Rainier National Park, between the present tranquil landscape adjacent to the volcano and the violent events that shaped parts of that same landscape in the recent past. Natural catastrophes that have geologic causes - such as eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, and floods - all too often are disastrous primarily because man has not understood and made allowance for the geologic environment he occupies. Assessment of the potential hazards of a volcanic environment is especially difficult, for prediction of the time and kind of volcanic activity is still an imperfect art, even at active volcanoes whose behavior has been closely observed for many years. Qualified predictions, however, can be used to plan ways in which hazards to life and property can be minimized. The prediction of eruptions is handicapped because volcanism results from conditions far beneath the surface of the earth, where the causative factors cannot be seen and, for the most part, cannot be measured. Consequently, long-range predictions at Mount Rainier can be based only on the past behavior of the volcano, as revealed by study of the deposits that resulted from previous eruptions. Predictions of this sort, of course, cannot be specific as to time and locale of future events, and clearly are valid only if the past behavior is, as we believe, a reliable guide. The purpose of this report is to infer the events recorded by certain postglacial deposits at Mount Rainier and to suggest what bearing similar events in the future might have on land use within and near the park. In addition, table 2 (page 22) gives possible warning signs of an impending eruption. We want to increase man's understanding of a possibly hazardous geologic environment around Mount Rainier volcano, yet we do not wish to imply for certain that the hazards described are either immediate or inevitable. However, we do believe that hazards exist, that some caution is warranted, and that some major hazards can be avoided by judicious planning. Most of the events with which we are concerned are sporadic phenomena that have resulted directly or indirectly from volcanic eruptions. Although no eruptions (other than steam emission) of the volcano in historic time are unequivocally known (Hopson and others, 1962), pyroclastic (air-laid) deposits of pumice and rock debris attest to repeated, widely spaced eruptions during the 10,000 years or so of postglacial time. In addition, the constituents of some debris flows indicate an origin during eruptions of molten rock; other debris flows, because of their large size and constituents, are believed to have been caused by steam explosions. Some debris flows, however, are not related to volcanism at all.
552. Hotaling et al. (2022) Summer dynamics of microbial diversity on a mountain glacier
     Glaciers are rapidly receding under climate change. A melting cryosphere will dramatically alter global sea levels, carbon cycling, and water resource availability. Glaciers host rich biotic communities that are dominated by microbial diversity, and this biodiversity can impact surface albedo, thereby driving a feedback loop between biodiversity and cryosphere melt. However, the microbial diversity of glacier ecosystems remains largely unknown outside of major ice sheets, particularly from a temporal perspective. Here, we characterized temporal dynamics of bacteria, eukaryotes, and algae on the Paradise Glacier, Mount Rainier, USA, over nine time points spanning the summer melt season. During our study, the glacier surface steadily darkened as seasonal snow melted and darkening agents accumulated until new snow fell in late September. From a community-wide perspective, the bacterial community remained generally constant while eukaryotes and algae exhibited temporal progression and community turnover. Patterns of individual taxonomic groups, however, were highly stochastic. We found little support for our a priori prediction that autotroph abundance would peak before heterotrophs. Notably, two different trends in snow algae emerged—an abundant early- and late-season operational taxonomic unit (OTU) with a different midsummer OTU that peaked in August. Overall, our results highlight the need for temporal sampling to clarify microbial diversity on glaciers and that caution should be exercised when interpreting results from single or few time points.
551. Kincaid (2024) Using historic glacial data and GIS to predict Mount Rainier National Park's glacial future
     Will Washington state have glaciers 100 years from now (year 2124)? Due to generally warmer weather glaciers are largely in retreat globally, including the glaciers in Washington state. In Washington state summer glacial meltwater plays a vital role in the survival of wildlife and is needed for human purposes that include recreation, power generation, drinking, agricultural, and industrial. This project looked at the most resilient glaciers in Washington state, the glaciers at Mount Rainier National Park. Historic measurements were used in an exponential growth calculation to project the amount in acres each glacier at Mount Rainer will advance or retreat over the next 100 years. The glaciers were digitized into ArcGIS Pro and then adjusted according to the calculations. The results of the project show that all the glaciers at Mount Rainier should be intact in 2124. This is of vital importance to wildlife and human populations that depend on the summer meltwater for various purposes.
550. Florea et al. (2022) Fumarole-ice dynamics in cryo-speleology on volcanic edifices—Mount Rainier, Washington, USA
     The persistent fumarole ice caves nearly circumnavigating the East Crater of Mount Rainier in the Cascade Volcanic Arc in Washington, USA, are a natural laboratory to study the dynamic equilibrium between thermal flux and glacial ice. The large circum‐crater passage connects to entrances on the crater rim by steep transverse passages, and fumarole gas convection and advection maintains the cave passage distribution and morphology. Between August 2016 and August 2017, we collected hourly data using remote sondes that include temperatures at three fumarole, cave air temperature and pressure, water temperature and depth in an in‐cave meltwater lake, and the outside temperature and snow depth at Paradise Visitors Center. Correlation and wavelet analyses of these data reveal complex associations between patterns of weather, fumarole activity, and lake level. At longer scales, fumarole temperatures behave largely independently and connected to spatial and temporal changes in volcanic heat flux and glacial melt circulation. At the scale of individual storm‐events, major snowfalls seal the cave entrances, increasing cave air temperature and pressure from fumarole output and causing rising lake levels from increased melt until entrances reopen. Repeating freeze‐thaw cycles observed in the cave monitoring data are a primary cause of crater mass‐wasting.
549. Stenner et al. (2023) Morphodynamics of glaciovolcanic caves—Mount Rainier, Washington, USA
     The twin summit craters of Mount Rainier, Washington, USA host the largest known glaciovolcanic caves in the world and at 4382 m, the highest elevation caves in the USA. The caves are formed in ice at the glacier-rock interface by volcanogenic gases and atmospheric advection. However, the way in which discrete caves are formed and evolve remains poorly understood. Surveys of the cave systems in 1970−1973 and 1997−1998 in both the West and East Craters documented cave passage morphology. Field expeditions from 2014−2017 comprehensively surveyed the Rainier summit caves and undertook thermal imaging and temperature monitoring. Significant changes had occurred. In the East Crater, documented cave length has nearly doubled since 1973 to 3593 m of passage spanning 144 m of depth, revealing a new subglacial lake, and now nearly circumnavigating the East Crater. Of the reported increase in length, some 600 m of the mapped passage is possibly newly formed. Across 47 years of observation, certain sections of the cave appear to be preserved in form and position through time, while others are more actively being lost or forming. Conserved passages are generally sub-horizontal, passages following the curvilinear crater contours, show low temperature variability, and are dependent on perennial fumarolic activity or distributed heat flux emanating from warm bedrock and sediment floors. Transient passages are smaller diameter dendritic passages following the slope of the ice-rock interface towards entrance zones and normal to the circum-crater passage. They also show higher variability in temperature and airflow and are subject to seasonal weather and mechanical collapse, which may contribute to transience. Additional research is required to confirm the mechanisms maintaining conserved passages and formation of transient passages.
548. Vaux et al. (2026) Dissolved black carbon in North Cascades snow, meltwater, and a downstream river
     Quantification of black carbon on snow in the Cascade Range is needed due to increasing wildfire intensity and frequency. Here, the benzenepolycarboxylic acid (BPCA) molecular method was used to measure dissolved black carbon (DBC) in snow, nearby rivers, streams, and supraglacial melt collected in 2022 and 2023 from Mount Baker and Mount Rainier. The average DBC concentration in snow was 9 ± 4 μg-C/L and 10 ± 6 μg-C/L in stream, river, and supraglacial meltwater samples. The DBC method provides black carbon source identification via BPCA characterization. DBC concentrations and BPCA proportions were compared to modeled smoke deposition from the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System reanalysis model. In both years, total deposition from May through October was approximately 670 mg/m2. However, early season smoke deposition (May through July) was four times higher in 2023 than 2022, indicating seasonal variability in the timing of deposition. Dry deposition accounted for over 80 percent of total late season smoke deposition (August through October) in both 2022 and 2023, while wet deposition accounted for 75 and 30 percent of total early season deposition in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The largest smoke deposition events on Mount Baker coincided with precipitation events and enrichment of benzenepentacarboxylic acid, a marker of biomass burning, in snow. Using the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative model, we estimated an average albedo of 0.68 ± 0.03. The resulting instantaneous radiative forcing attributable to the presence of BC in snow ranged from 3 to 16 W/m2, with an average of 7.47 ± 3.3 W/m2.

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The U.S. Geological Survey Cascades Volcano Observatory and the University of Washington Pacific Northwest Seismic Network continue to monitor Washington and Oregon volcanoes closely and will issue additional notifications as warranted.

Website Resources

For images, graphics, and general information on Cascade Range volcanoes: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo
For seismic information on Oregon and Washington volcanoes: http://www.pnsn.org/volcanoes
For information on USGS volcano alert levels and notifications: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-notifications-deliver-situational-information

Jon Major, Scientist-in-Charge, Cascades Volcano Observatory, jjmajor@usgs.gov

General inquiries: vhpweb@usgs.gov